As of this writing there is a house for sale here in Boulder that I am slightly obsessed with. It is located at 2595 Glenwood Dr (Redfin link) in North Boulder. We live in South Boulder, but this house is only a few blocks away from where we lived when we first moved to Boulder. It's also on one of the primary routes I use to go North/South through Boulder on my bike, and I've had a chance to keep an eye on the location for years. I am not obsessed about it because I like the house in particular. It's in a fairly typical modern style with multiple exterior materials and way too much white paint inside. It's nice enough, and I assume well built, but it's nothing unique nor special. I'm obsessed because I find the history of the property fascinating. I find it fascinating because the people involved have been delusional for years about the worth of this location. In another universe, if the sellers had been less delusional, we might have thought about building a house on it. I'm also obsessed because I have a small bet with myself of the price at which the house will eventually be sold, and I want to be correct.
There is some property history in that Redfin link above, but I'm not sure it's complete for the story I want to tell. The earliest record is December, 2022, but I think my obsession started even before that. Below is my best recollection of the order of events:
- The lot the house sits on used to be part of a larger lot for the house next door, immediately to the West. Some time before December, 2022, the owners of that property put the East half of their property on the market. At the time that house had an extension that impinged on the proposed East lot. The property listing indicated that this extension would be demolished, but the upshot is they were trying to sell a piece of property that wasn't ready to be sold and developed. This is the first indication that the sellers were delusional. Delusion count = 1.
- If my memory is correct, they first asked for $750,000. At the time, even during the height of COVID house pricing mania, the most expensive houses in that neighborhood were in the $1 to $1.2 million range. This means that to build a house that was in line with the neighborhood, a builder would have less than $500,000 to spend. This was not realistic, meaning that any house built would have to be the most expensive in the neighborhood by a large amount. Delusion count = 2.
- Needless to say, the lot didn't sell. I think during this period the extension was demolished and the original house remodeled.
- After some time, the lot listing was updated, but this time it included architectural designs and a $150,000 price increase to $900,000. I think this brings us to December, 2022. To summarize, the lot didn't sell at $750,000, and they thought that including plans for the house they wanted next to them justified increasing the price by $150,000. Maybe they thought that following through on the extension demolition justified part of the price increase? Delusion count = 3.
- The property was eventually sold for $500,000 in June, 2024, a year and a half later. Redfin doesn't show this sale, but it's available on the Boulder County Property Assessor Site. The current owner is "GLENWOOD SPEC LLC," which is almost certainly an LLC created for the sole purpose of building and selling a home on this lot. There's probably nothing shady nor unusual about this, but it is interesting.
- Apparently the build went fast enough that it was put on the market in February, 2025, for $3,250,000. This is roughly three times the price of any other home in the neighborhood. It is quite a bit bigger than nearby houses, and newer (of course), but it is on a small corner lot next to a semi-busy road which are demerits that other homes do not have. Delusion count = 4.
- It was at this point I made the bet with myself that the house would sell for no more than 70% of this price, or around $2.3 million. By the way, I cannot be sure, but I think that the real house is nothing like the design that was being sold for $150,000.
- In the (almost) year since, they have slowly dropped the price. They dropped it by $300,000 after three months of not selling1, but since then by increasingly smaller amounts, with the most recent drop a few days ago of just $30,000, bringing the latest asking price to $2,570,000. It looks like they got a bite in August, 2025, but it didn't go through. It's almost certain that in the last year the owners have been paying construction loans, insurance, and property taxes that I'm sure are at least $10,000 a month2. This means that each month that goes by that the house remains unsold, they are effectively lowering the their profit by $10,000 by being stubborn. I'm going to count this slow pace of price reductions and stubbornness as Delusion count = 5.
- This brings us today, and if my bet is correct, still nearly another $300,000 to drop until it's sold. And I could be wrong about my bet by being too conservative. The actual sale price could be lower than that!
Would I buy this house? Certainly not for $2.3 million. There is a price I would pay, but it's a price the seller would never accept. The lot is really small, and I don't think I would want to live next to the semi-busy road. I do like the neighborhood, it's a few blocks to the nearest grocery store and a short bike ride to downtown. We would like a bigger house, but I don't think this is for us.
Finally, here are two regressions predicting when the house might sell. First, if we assume a linear pace of price reductions with respect to time, the $2.3 million price I predict it will sell for will be reached at about 420 days after the initial listing. That's around three months from now.
The sellers probably don't want to sell the house at a loss, meaning that
there's probably a floor below which they really don't want to sell.
In that case, the ask price might be following a 1/x-like curve.
Using that to fit, I predict it their price floor is $2.26 million and it
will take around 3615 days to reach $2.3 million, which is about 9 years from now.
If this fit is correct (it probably isn't and and I hope it isn't for their sake),
they would spend over $1 million on taxes, insurance, and the construction loan
before the house sells, which would likely be a massive loss.
Which is why this fit is almost certainly baloney!
You can be sure I'll keep an eye on this property. Will the seller find new ways to be delusional? I'm excited to find out! I'll follow up even if I end up being wrong and the house is sold for more than $2.3 million.